[BC] From NAB Newsletter

[Brian Urban]

Two things

Texas Instruments has a mobile chip project, code named Da Vinci.  Time
frame is about 1 year to introduction.  A long time, yes, but reasonable
power consumption devices are more that "on the drawing board"

The reason satellite radio systems are so cheap is that both XM and Sirius
subsidize receivers cost directly to manufacturers and retailers.  Some
organizations are looking at taking a page from the XM/Sirius book and may
subsidize HD receivers.  We are talking CASH money, not inventory/funny
money.


On 7/18/06 8:32 AM, "Rich Wood" <richwood at pobox.com> wrote:

> ------ At 05:03 AM 7/18/2006, Robert Orban wrote: -------
> 
>> Thanks to cellphone developments over the last 20 years,
>> semiconductor manufacturers now know how to make very low power
>> digital receivers and DSP. There is no reason why they can't
>> leverage these techniques to IBOC. It's not going to take another 20 years.
> 
> No one's questioning that the technological capability is there. The
> real problem is that the consumers aren't. 600-800 million
> replacement receivers (a conservative estimate) for people who see no
> need. The suggestion that the "IBUZ Revolution" will be complete in 5
> years would be hysterically funny if it weren't so deceptive. You, of
> all people, know the lead time to design, manufacture and distribute
> a new product. Mike Bergman of Kenwood says about 3 years. That
> leaves two years to sell 600-800 million receivers. We'll have to
> raid every used car dealership to get enough salespeople willing to
> push this product. They're the only ones who'll be able to sleep
> nights doing it.
> 
> I'm going on four months since the first IBUZ receiver appeared in a
> store in Western MA. Still, only three have been sold - all to radio
> people. Not a single "civilian" non-radio person has even asked about
> them. Only a single "HD Radio Ready" car receiver is available. The
> required external tuner is not stocked. They stock every satellite
> service tuner for every brand available.
> 
> I believe it's going to take longer than 20 years to have enough
> receivers in the hands of diary-filling listeners to be valuable to
> advertisers. I don't believe the average listener is going climb up
> on his roof and install an antenna to listen to "regular radio."
> Unfortunately, the only receiver I can buy today, plug in and hear a
> high power, close-in station out of the box is the BA Receptor.
> 
> Have you heard any manufacturer with a pocket-sized receiver on the
> drawing board? Without that low power chip available in large
> quantities, who's likely to design a receiver not even knowing what
> the pinouts are likely to be? Is anyone you know of designing either
> the chip or a receiver to use it? Thanks to satellite radio the price
> point is $99 often with a $50 rebate. The big box stores won't have
> them until that price point is reached. In this market, the only
> retailer carrying the BA Receptor is Tweeter. That doesn't come from
> consumer demand. It comes from a deal between Tweeter and Boston
> Acoustics. In the store, the radio is deaf unless connected to the
> rooftop antenna. The Yamaha AV receiver receives everything even with
> the BA rat tail antenna deep in the bowels of the store.
> 
> This is going to be AM Stereo all over again, only faster. Some WiFi
> technology, I believe will leapfrog IBUZ and marinas will be
> inundated with IBUZ receivers camouflaged as boat anchors.
> 
> With the FCC bowing to the manufacturer's will and delaying nighttime
> operation I believe AM IBUZ is a dead issue. It MUST be 24/7 or we'll
> have the equivalent of Black and White TV after sunset. For FM, where
> will the advertising dollars come from for 7,000 new radio stations?
> All it'll do is lower the rates of existing inventory. A "Dollar a
> Holler" will be reality even in major markets.
> 
> Remember CDs. How many manufacturers were on the bandwagon quickly? I
> had a CD player before there were any CDs to play on it. Same with
> DVDs. Same with cell phones. Unique new technology that pushed the
> state of the art forward fast.
> 
> Rich
> 
> 
> 
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-- 
Brian Urban
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The University of Texas at Austin
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