[EAS] Deja Vu: Boulder officials questioned over effectiveness of emergency notification system

[Sean Donelan]

On Sat, 8 Jan 2022, Dave Turnmire wrote:
> I've been a broadcaster for 45+ years, and have served on our SECC for many 
> years... so I'd love to agree with that.  But in regards to EAS.... having RF 
> reach the bodies of 80% of the people isn't quite the same as them having a 
> radio turned on... or a TV turned on and tuned to a local station. 

Correct. Each has their pluses and minuses, and no single method should be 
relied on exclusively.

Although the NAB likes to brag about "first informers," only a few 
stations actually act as "first explainers" in each market now. They may 
not be a first alert source anymore, but the public usually tunes into 
one of the major broadcast radio or TV news stations shortly after 
learning about an emergency alert via other means.

According to the Burea of Labor Statistics, years 2013-2017, 79.2% of 
people spent some time watching TV on a given day.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-7/television-capturing-americas-attention.htm

The lowest viewership was 3-4am (1.2%) and peak was 8-9pm (58.9%).

Radio has 'drive time' peaks, but I couldn't find free statistics about 
radio anymore. I'm sure Neilsen or one of the pay rating services has a 
report.

So, yes, an EAS message could potentially reach about 60% of households 
in prime time. Unlikely, but possibly.  WEA has the largest 'market 
share' of 80% of households now. But EAS is still a valuable alerting 
channel.

Public subscription/opt-in alerting methods average around 10% of 
households, and have reached 20% with extensive public subscription 
campaigns (which most local governments can't afford). Subscription 
alerting works best in captive communities, such as a university or 
school or military base. Subscription systems are a great replacement for 
community newsletters, and non-emergency public information such as school 
closings and event announcements.

The difference is subscription alert vendors have commissioned sales 
people regularly calling emergency managers all over the country. And once 
an emergency manager has invested in a commercial alert system, they have 
a vested interest in proving that investment was worthwhile. They don't 
like reports saying 80% of the people in their community never got an 
alert.

Of course, these are old statistics.  Streaming services account for
a quarter of viewing now (these are 'shares' of TVs turned on).

    Cable TV channels (not including local broadcast TV channels) - 39%
    Streaming services (Netflix, VOD, internet, etc) - 26%
    Broadcast TV channels (including over the air and cable) - 25%
    Other (gaming consoles, video disc/tapes, etc.) - 9%

When I looked up this information for 2020:

Weather Radio - 5% households (higher in weather hazard areas)

Landline telephone - 40% households (70% in 2010, and 96% in 2000)

Smart speakers - 50% households (introduced in 2014)

Cellular smartphone - 80% households (34% in 2010, introduced 2007)
   - yes, I know, the first smartphone was 1994, but the modern smartphone 
was introduced in 2007.

Cellular phone (anytype) - 97% households (80% in 2010, 55% in 2000)
   - older and poorer people have 'dumb' cell phones - WEA doesn't reach 
everyone.

I don't have data for how many communities have working outdoor warning 
sirens, or what percentage of the population could hear them.  There are 
also other special alerting channels (digital signs, closed circuit 
devices, social media, transportable loudspeakers, door knocking, etc.)

We really need better data and research.