[EAS] HD developer proposal for EAS

[Sean Donelan]

On Mon, 18 Mar 2019, Adrienne Abbott wrote:
> Unfortunately, warning systems will still have to cater to the lowest common
> denominator to make sure everyone gets the information.

The technology curve has long tails on both the leading edge and lagging 
edge.

Think of counties only using landline telephone emergency notification 
systems during wildfires. They were spending more and more money 
to reach fewer and fewer people with landlines. But failed to notify the 
bulk of the population using other communication channels.

It turns out that "lowest common denominator" is often not as common 
anymore. The same thing happened to pay telephones on the street, 
multi-party phone lines in rural areas, morse code radio stations, 
tickertape and teletype alerts, western union synchronized 
clocks. Even AM radio stations don't reach the public like they did in 
the past.

The bulk of the public will always be somewhere in the middle of the 
technology adoption curves, i.e. the 80%. While a few people will be at 
either end, i.e. the 10% bleeding edge and 10% lagging behind. The hard 
part is keeping an appropriate pace as technology changes over time.

That doesn't mean ignoring the 10% without whatever technology is 
commonplace in 2029, there will still be the need for outreach to 
underserved populations. But emergency warning systems shouldn't be 
stagnant just to cater to the oldest technology still in use.

If it takes 10 to 20 years to update emergency warning systems, what will 
be the most common denominator in the year 2029 or 2039 assuming we 
started today?