[EAS] NWS Fun

Sean Donelan sean at donelan.com
Sat Aug 11 17:30:53 CDT 2018


There is intent, and what happens in practice.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/07/12/all-about-flash-flooding-in-the-washington-baltimore-area/

Around Washington DC, you'll see the surge in flash flood warnings around 
5pm which you would expect because that's when severe thunderstorms tend 
to occur here.  But then notice the additional peaks at 6 hours later, and 
a secondary peak 12 hours later as forecasters renew those warnings. 
Finally there is a small peak between 7-8am after the overnight "quiet 
hours" are over when forecasters seem to renew warnings for the next day.

On Sat, 11 Aug 2018, Mike McCarthy wrote:
> I dunno...
>
> FFW is a very localized, short fused, and highly perishable message. FFW's
> are typically followed up by an areal flood warning or a simple flood
> warning if there is a larger flood episode. I rarely see a FFW renewed
> unless the area has a fresh FFW for a different storm.
>
> The intent of the FFW is get people's attention to the fact a fast
> occurring flood is developing or in progress where it may not be evident.
> Especially in river basins, dry gulches, and floodways where a wall of
> water with no warning can appear from a heavy rain event many miles
> upstream.
>
> It carries the same hazard threshold as a tornado or tsunami.
>
> MM
>
> On Sat, August 11, 2018 2:47 pm, Sean Donelan wrote:
>>
>> It seems like FFW is massively overused for generating WEAs. Maybe NOAA
>> needs to re-examine its WEA filters for FFW or split up FFW into major and
>> minor flooding conditions.  Especially since FFW seem to get "renewed"
>> every 6-hours, day and night, resulting in fresh WEA alerts at 3am for
>> several days in a row.
>
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