[BC] Should We Now Wait on Digital-only TV?

[Scott Fybush]

The transition won't wait, and it has very little (nothing, really) to 
do with Joe Consumer and the Main Street economy.

It has everything to do with the spectrum being freed up by the 
transition, much of which is already in use by wireless companies such 
as Qualcomm. They're waiting (somewhat impatiently) to have access to 
more of the channels that will be taken out of analog use in February, 
and having already paid for that spectrum at auction, they're 
disinclined to tolerate any delays.

A lot of TV stations would be very unhappy if the transition's delayed, 
too. I know many that are keeping aging analog transmitters limping 
along to the finish line, and having not budgeted for new Klystrons and 
such, they'd face a financial hit if they're compelled to keep analog on 
the air much past February.

Then you have the domino chain that is the series of channel swaps that 
will happen at transition time: over in my neighboring market to the 
east, Syracuse, channel 3 has to turn off its DTV transmitter on channel 
54 on 2/17/09 because that channel will be "out of core" - but it can't 
sign on DTV on its permanent channel, 24, until the analog station 
that's now on that channel signs off.

And then you've got tower leases that would need to be extended (one of 
the stations I work for has an analog UHF tenant that we're expecting 
off the tower on 2/17/09, for instance); tower crews that have already 
been booked to move and remove antennas; and on and on.

The train is already in motion, and it's not going to stop just out of 
concern that Joe Public can't afford the TWENTY BUCKS it will cost 
(after rebate) for the box that will allow him to keep watching TV. 
Nobody's being forced to buy a brand new TV.

Will there be some bumps along the way? Will a few people lose reception 
until they buy the box we've been telling them to buy for over a year 
already?

Of course - but that will happen whether it's in February 2009 or August 
2009 or March of 2010. May as well get it over with...

s