[BC] From NAB Newsletter

[JD Davis]

I keep reading how EVERY SATELLITE COMPANY IS REPRESENTED IN RECEIVERS. How
long did this take really? Folks know XM and Cereal because they are TALKED
ABOUT. When folks start talking about HD (IBOC) then there will be a demand
for radios. Not until. Read your own texts on this subject and you can
easily see the parallels. HD needs buzz (not the kind on the AM dial) to get
going, but all I hear from you old farts is how bad it is for radio. FACE
IT, HD IS HERE AND YOU CAN EITHER GET ON BOARD OR JUMP SHIP. It's your
choice... but please QUIT YOUR DAMN BITCHING!!!!!!!

Lotus Broadcasting
James "JD" Davis
IT Manager

-----Original Message-----
From: broadcast-bounces at radiolists.net
[mailto:broadcast-bounces at radiolists.net] On Behalf Of Rich Wood
Sent: Tuesday, July 18, 2006 6:32 AM
To: Broadcasters' Mailing List
Subject: Re: [BC] From NAB Newsletter

------ At 05:03 AM 7/18/2006, Robert Orban wrote: -------

>Thanks to cellphone developments over the last 20 years, semiconductor 
>manufacturers now know how to make very low power digital receivers and 
>DSP. There is no reason why they can't leverage these techniques to 
>IBOC. It's not going to take another 20 years.

No one's questioning that the technological capability is there. The real
problem is that the consumers aren't. 600-800 million replacement receivers
(a conservative estimate) for people who see no need. The suggestion that
the "IBUZ Revolution" will be complete in 5 years would be hysterically
funny if it weren't so deceptive. You, of all people, know the lead time to
design, manufacture and distribute a new product. Mike Bergman of Kenwood
says about 3 years. That leaves two years to sell 600-800 million receivers.
We'll have to raid every used car dealership to get enough salespeople
willing to push this product. They're the only ones who'll be able to sleep
nights doing it.

I'm going on four months since the first IBUZ receiver appeared in a store
in Western MA. Still, only three have been sold - all to radio people. Not a
single "civilian" non-radio person has even asked about them. Only a single
"HD Radio Ready" car receiver is available. The required external tuner is
not stocked. They stock every satellite service tuner for every brand
available.

I believe it's going to take longer than 20 years to have enough receivers
in the hands of diary-filling listeners to be valuable to advertisers. I
don't believe the average listener is going climb up on his roof and install
an antenna to listen to "regular radio." 
Unfortunately, the only receiver I can buy today, plug in and hear a high
power, close-in station out of the box is the BA Receptor.

Have you heard any manufacturer with a pocket-sized receiver on the drawing
board? Without that low power chip available in large quantities, who's
likely to design a receiver not even knowing what the pinouts are likely to
be? Is anyone you know of designing either the chip or a receiver to use it?
Thanks to satellite radio the price point is $99 often with a $50 rebate.
The big box stores won't have them until that price point is reached. In
this market, the only retailer carrying the BA Receptor is Tweeter. That
doesn't come from consumer demand. It comes from a deal between Tweeter and
Boston Acoustics. In the store, the radio is deaf unless connected to the
rooftop antenna. The Yamaha AV receiver receives everything even with the BA
rat tail antenna deep in the bowels of the store.

This is going to be AM Stereo all over again, only faster. Some WiFi
technology, I believe will leapfrog IBUZ and marinas will be inundated with
IBUZ receivers camouflaged as boat anchors.

With the FCC bowing to the manufacturer's will and delaying nighttime
operation I believe AM IBUZ is a dead issue. It MUST be 24/7 or we'll have
the equivalent of Black and White TV after sunset. For FM, where will the
advertising dollars come from for 7,000 new radio stations? 
All it'll do is lower the rates of existing inventory. A "Dollar a Holler"
will be reality even in major markets.

Remember CDs. How many manufacturers were on the bandwagon quickly? I had a
CD player before there were any CDs to play on it. Same with DVDs. Same with
cell phones. Unique new technology that pushed the state of the art forward
fast.

Rich



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