[BC] From NAB Newsletter

[Robert Meuser]

Rich:

I don't know who is quoting 5 years but Glynn Walden the father of IBOC 
can be quoted as saying "not in our lifetime".

R


Rich Wood wrote:

> ------ At 05:03 AM 7/18/2006, Robert Orban wrote: -------
>
>> Thanks to cellphone developments over the last 20 years, 
>> semiconductor manufacturers now know how to make very low power 
>> digital receivers and DSP. There is no reason why they can't leverage 
>> these techniques to IBOC. It's not going to take another 20 years.
>
>
> No one's questioning that the technological capability is there. The 
> real problem is that the consumers aren't. 600-800 million replacement 
> receivers (a conservative estimate) for people who see no need. The 
> suggestion that the "IBUZ Revolution" will be complete in 5 years 
> would be hysterically funny if it weren't so deceptive. You, of all 
> people, know the lead time to design, manufacture and distribute a new 
> product. Mike Bergman of Kenwood says about 3 years. That leaves two 
> years to sell 600-800 million receivers. We'll have to raid every used 
> car dealership to get enough salespeople willing to push this product. 
> They're the only ones who'll be able to sleep nights doing it.
>
> I'm going on four months since the first IBUZ receiver appeared in a 
> store in Western MA. Still, only three have been sold - all to radio 
> people. Not a single "civilian" non-radio person has even asked about 
> them. Only a single "HD Radio Ready" car receiver is available. The 
> required external tuner is not stocked. They stock every satellite 
> service tuner for every brand available.
>
> I believe it's going to take longer than 20 years to have enough 
> receivers in the hands of diary-filling listeners to be valuable to 
> advertisers. I don't believe the average listener is going climb up on 
> his roof and install an antenna to listen to "regular radio." 
> Unfortunately, the only receiver I can buy today, plug in and hear a 
> high power, close-in station out of the box is the BA Receptor.
>
> Have you heard any manufacturer with a pocket-sized receiver on the 
> drawing board? Without that low power chip available in large 
> quantities, who's likely to design a receiver not even knowing what 
> the pinouts are likely to be? Is anyone you know of designing either 
> the chip or a receiver to use it? Thanks to satellite radio the price 
> point is $99 often with a $50 rebate. The big box stores won't have 
> them until that price point is reached. In this market, the only 
> retailer carrying the BA Receptor is Tweeter. That doesn't come from 
> consumer demand. It comes from a deal between Tweeter and Boston 
> Acoustics. In the store, the radio is deaf unless connected to the 
> rooftop antenna. The Yamaha AV receiver receives everything even with 
> the BA rat tail antenna deep in the bowels of the store.
>
> This is going to be AM Stereo all over again, only faster. Some WiFi 
> technology, I believe will leapfrog IBUZ and marinas will be inundated 
> with IBUZ receivers camouflaged as boat anchors.
>
> With the FCC bowing to the manufacturer's will and delaying nighttime 
> operation I believe AM IBUZ is a dead issue. It MUST be 24/7 or we'll 
> have the equivalent of Black and White TV after sunset. For FM, where 
> will the advertising dollars come from for 7,000 new radio stations? 
> All it'll do is lower the rates of existing inventory. A "Dollar a 
> Holler" will be reality even in major markets.
>
> Remember CDs. How many manufacturers were on the bandwagon quickly? I 
> had a CD player before there were any CDs to play on it. Same with 
> DVDs. Same with cell phones. Unique new technology that pushed the 
> state of the art forward fast.
>
> Rich
>
>
>
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