[EAS] A never used function for the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS)

[Robert Bunge]

I've watched this industry as a hobby for many years.  Few realize it, but China has dominated/led in the number of launches into space for a number of years now.  They also have several different space ports these days.  Their space activities have become a major source of national pride with launches, especially like this one, which launched the core of a space station, being publicized ahead of time and watched by tourists much like in the US.  This was the 2nd launch of this model of booster, with the first one also putting the first stage into orbit in an uncontrolled manner.  Time will tell if they will fix this with later versions of this rocket as they have major plans for it with both their space station and Moon landing programs.  Their abilities in this area are high and growing by the day.  On top of their semi-civilian activities, their military space program is very robust and tightly integrated with their regional force projection plans (example: real time targeting data of US carriers from thousands of miles away) and denial of other military's access to space assets as needed.

I'll predict the region and window for reentry will be all over the media when it comes time.  I don't think they will be able pin it down enough for much less than a regional type of warning if it was decided to use EAS and, IMHO, a national warning would be overkill.  

Bob

On Wed, May 5, 2021 at 10:35 AM Dave Kline <dklinefmtv at gmail.com> wrote:
>Skylab, Shuttle Columbia. Ask the dinosaurs about stuff falling from space, oh wait!

>This rocket is big by comparison to the half-million pieces of space junk that NASA is tracking.

>It would be interesting to know what event code will be used if EAS is activated for rocket parts falling on US soil. Will the alert be geo-targeted or sent as an all USA? And given that it will be a best guess where stuff might land, would an evacuation order be appropriate or just shelter in place?

>It almost boarders on sending an alert that provides no real information that would be useful to saving lives. What's the point if it only serves to scare people, and may have unintended consequences as occurred with the Hawaii missile alert. The chances of anyone actually being hit are extremely small. And like a tornado warning in Nebraska, rather than take shelter, people will go outside to try and see it, furthering their risk.

>China's land-locked space ports have rockets launching over population all the time. One launch failure dumped a big rocket right on a village. Once you reach orbit, the whole world is that village.
>As with the Soviet Space program, and in some cases even our own, safety is a secondary concern.
>Ironic that the civilization credited with inventing fireworks doesn't bother to blow up stray rockets. These things need the equivalent of a dead-man switch.

>On Tue, May 4, 2021 at 8:04 PM Sean Donelan <sean at donelan.com> wrote:
>>Yes, I mean EBS.

>>In the 1960s, during the space race, the commander of NORAD had the
>>authority to activate the EBS in the event of unconrolled reentry of
>>spacecraft/debris over the US (and notified Canadian officials).
>>Obviously that function was never used, but the authority was in the old
>>EBS planning documents.

>>After the 1970s, the space debris re-entry warning function wasn't
>>mentioned in EBS planning documents anymore.  I'm guessing it vanished
>>with Nixon's executive order after a test tape triggered the false alert.

>>Now that the Administrator of FEMA has the authority to activate the
>>Emergency Alert System (EAS, note the initials changed)....

>>Guess what's happening this weekend?  The rocket will likely crash in the
>>ocean, because there is lots of ocean.  But if the rocket crashes
>>somewhere important, without a public warning...

>>https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/04/politics/chinese-rocket-earth-scn/index.html

>>Pentagon tracking out-of-control Chinese rocket that could reenter Earth's
>>atmosphere

>>The Pentagon has said it is tracking a large Chinese rocket that is out of
>>control and set to reenter Earth's atmosphere this weekend, raising
>>concerns about where its debris may make impact.

>>The Chinese Long March 5B rocket is expected to enter Earth's atmosphere
>>"around May 8," according to a statement from Defense Department
>>spokesperson Mike Howard, who said the US Space Command is tracking the
>>rocket's trajectory.

>>The rocket's "exact entry point into the Earth's atmosphere" can't be
>>pinpointed until within hours of reentry, Howard said, but the 18th Space
>>Control Squadron will provide daily updates on the rocket's location
>>through the Space Track website. The rocket was used by the Chinese to
>>launch part of their space station last week. While most space debris
>>objects burn up in the atmosphere, the rocket's size -- 22 tons -- has
>>prompted concern that large parts could reenter and cause damage if they
>>hit inhabited areas.

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>Dave Kline - Solder Jockey
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