[EAS] Sandy & CAP

[Mike McCarthy]

All due respect, I disagree with that premise. It's the door bell of the 
unpredicted and unexpected which really should be reserved for EAS.  
Like the late evening tidal wave warnings for the Hawaiian islands and 
Alaska's south coast after a 7.7 quake off the Canadian west coast.

Also UNlike Sandy, Katrina was largely "ignored" because folks there 
(and really across the country) didn't "get" the intense wrath and 
onslaught big intense hurricanes bring well inland. Most folks there or 
across the USA (Florida excepted) didn't understand the power of a CAT-4 
storm.  All they remember was Andrew's wind devastation  and Galveston's 
5000 lost souls in 1901. Andrew's storm surge was stopped at the more 
elevated seacoast and barrier islands lining south Florida.

Suffice to say, most folks didn't "get" what a storm surge can really do 
to their buildings, neighborhoods and cities before Katrina.  All they 
really knew about was the high winds and heavy driven rain believing 
everything else around them would hold.  Katrina educated the country 
like Andrew or Gilbert could not.  It struck at the nation's soft spot.  
A metro area largely at or below sea level with infrastructure incapable 
of handling the onslaught.

Unlike the experience with Katrina, the people in the NY/NJ/Delmar area 
knew what was coming, generally were better prepared as a result of 
seeing what happened with Katrina, and did what they needed and told to 
survive.  When you look at the population and hard developed areas most 
severely impacted along the seacoast, it's an order of magnitude more 
people and infrastructure than the NOLA area along the seacoast and 
inland. Instead of 1000+ dead in NOLA and surrounding areas after 
Katrina, only 60 have been lost so far with Sandy. And damage will be 
less than half of Katrina despite hitting the most densely developed 
area in the country.  Lord only knows what would have happened if Sandy 
was a CAT 3 or 4 and more comparable to Katrina (though it's central 
pressure was darn near close). Lots more damage in the big buildings and 
likely many substandard or older ones simply demolished and turned into 
kindling and rubble.

While I agree with the premise the NWS tends to message flood micro 
events, I don't think issuing a tropical storm or hurricane warning for 
the near shore or land counties would have made any difference.  In 
fact, it would have created more clutter and confusion as people would 
spend time asking and debating "What is it...really?" than preparing for 
what is simply a major wind storm of generational proportions and one 
which all others the next 100 years is compared.

To wit, EAS is the call to action doorbell of the unpredicted and 
unexpected. CAP is a tool in the tool box ready to ring the door bell 
when it's really is needed.

MM

.

On 11/1/2012 7:10 PM, Adrienne Abbott wrote:
> __________________________________________________________
>
> "We didn't need the doorbell, we saw it coming at us from 2,000 miles away."
>
> Suzanne--
> That was the same situation with Hurricane Katrina and yet people by the
> thousands ignored the warnings and lots of them died. I think people take
> these things a little more seriously now. But as you say, there were New
> Yorkers by the hundreds who complained that the media over-hyped Sandy. EAS
> activations for an event as predictable as a hurricane may be redundant but
> in hindsight, you have to wonder if another warning would have saved more
> lives, regardless of the NHC standards! (Too bad they don't have the same
> kind of enthusiasm for standards when it comes to weather warnings during
> our monsoon season when SVR's and FFW's get cranked out by dozen for areas
> that have more jackrabbits than people!)
>