[BC] RE: California Fires, How s everyone doing?

[Richard Rudman]

There is a metric to assess the success or failure of warnings. Did  
people at risk take protective action(s), or allow protective action 
(s) to be taken in their behalf?

Most people were still sleeping when the Malibu fire, probably  
started by sparks from live power lines downed by the wind and or  
flying tree debris, started. Sheriff's cars with loud speakers, and  
Sheriffs knocking on doors were the best warning system available.  
The deputies drove into the canyon neighborhoods they patrol and did  
their thing.

Other communities used this and other warning methods. EAS, to the  
best of my knowledge, was not used. However, I guarantee that anyone  
who woke up and smelled smoke turned on their radio and/or TV and  
benefited from many stations that went "All Fire, All The Time." By 7  
AM when I awoke, two LA stations had wall-to-wall fire coverage. The  
all news radio stations were on the story too. The major point I like  
to see in warning messages is a tag line that drive "warnees" to live  
local news outlets.  Most people who have lived in California for a  
while have that drilled into them. To me, how they get there is not  
important. That they get there is. Warnings are merely the headline  
to the unfolding story of an emergency. The superset under which  
warnings fall as a subset is referred to as Emergency Public  
Information (EPI).

Including all the other fires, as of this time, I know of only one  
fatality, a fire fighter. By any measure, lives were not lost.  
Comparing this fire to the tragic Malibu fire in 1993 where over 200  
homes were lost, only five homes have been lost so far and  
containment figures starting to be announced.

One possible difference is that emergency services personnel now have  
a protocol to stage fire strike teams when winds get above a certain  
level during a Red Flag fire alert. The closest strike team got to  
the fire approximately 12 minutes after it was called in. Had that  
not been the case, things could have been a lot worse. There are  
other adjustments that have been made to California's emergency  
response for brush fires that have to with effective mutual aid. For  
one thing, strike teams from out of the area will all have the same  
hose couplings -- a lesson learned the hard way through the big  
Oakland fire.

The relatively small area in Malibu where evacuations were called for  
are not yet served by reverse 911. So, Reverse 911 becomes another  
warning resource as the capability is installed. I think that's a  
good thing. The more diverse warning systems we have, the better. No  
one system will work in all cases, but hopefully at least one will  
survive and be used that may help mitigate loss of life and property  
loss and damage.

The next generation of EAS could lead to warnings that get to more  
people faster so they tune in to live media faster.  How?  The  
consumer electronics industry needs to create what I call "Warning  
appliances" based on the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP). For one  
thing, such an appliance could get warnings to people at risk at 0300  
when they are not tuned in. External contact closures could trigger  
warnings for the hearing and sight impaired even if radios and TV's  
are turned off. Result: More people driven faster to live local news  
for updates on what they need to know to take protective action.

If you have not heard about CAP, you will. If you want to know now,  
please contact me off list, or visit the EAS section of the SBE website.

A final thought just for those in the B'Net audience who spend their  
time tearing down EAS. EAS can and has worked in some places --  
obviously not where you live or hear about. If you are going to  
dispute its effectiveness, please remember the places where it is  
effective are usually in places where engineers have gone the extra  
mile to work with local government and the weather service. Is EAS  
effective all the time even where it does work? Not likely. Can EAS  
be improved if all stakeholders want it to? Likely.

If you read this week's NAB TechCheck, you saw that SBE, NAB and the  
National Association of State Broadcaster Associations (NASBA) met  
with FEMA/DHS, the FCC and NOAA NWS last week to "to discuss the  
issues surrounding the development and implementation of the next  
generation Emergency Alert System (EAS)".

This will not be a short process, but it is worth the time and effort  
for those of us who want better warnings of all types. The process  
will be easier if we have fewer demolition experts and more project  
managers on the team.

Richard Rudman
Vice Chair, California SECC